Gambling

Now that I have covered two personal stories that I consider to be “so illogical, its logical”, I want to very broadly delve into a series of topics that I also consider to be “so illogical, its logical.” This one is a lot longer than the other two and not as funny, but I still think it is an enjoyable read and fits the topic perfectly. The first topic of this multi-part series is gambling; something I grew up around and been around my entire life.

Before I jump into ANY analysis or stories, let me first state that I believe all of us can mostly agree that the idea of gambling is completely illogical. The house always has the advantage on ANY bet you can name. With sports betting, the casino/online bookmaker charges “juice or vig” on each bet. In laymen’s terms: there are no straight bets. Betting a team straight up to win varies drastically on the payout and depends on how much they are favored to win by. For example a team that is favored to win by 5 for every $100 you bet, you would receive an additional $42 on top of your $100. As you can guess, getting only 42% on your team to outright win, when the true odds of a team winning a game are really 50/50 in the long run, it’s a pretty bad idea. The other popular sports bet is called betting the “spread”. You are betting on a team to win by a certain amount of points and you bet $110 to win $100 on top of your $110. The casino’s goal is for the sportsbook to get equal action on both sides of the games in order to earn riskless profit.

On table games (i.e. BlackJack, Craps, Roulette, Paigow Poker) they don’t pay you true odds (for the exception of 1 bet which is explained later). Any and all slots are a complete rip off. The Casino’s LOVE when someone wins a big slot because it only drives more suckers to the slots because they think that they are going to be that winner.

So lets give the benefit of the doubt that Gambling fits the first part of the phrase. Now I have to convince you of the reasons why Gambling is so illogical its logical (very difficult task)

Why do people gamble?

-Way to Make/Lose Money

-Started off as a hobby

-Addiction (Some/Most people are addicted to gambling and are ADDICTED to losing money. This is so illogical its logical)

-Grew up around it

The instances in which I will try to prove Gambling as logical are EXTREME cases and should be magnified under a lens because these are not normal cases. But my point is that if a person is able to exercise extreme control and has the ability to walk away when they are down and understand to leave the table when they are up, they have a chance of winning in the long-term. And even if they don’t win, read my story below in the losers section.

Winners:

The movie 21 comes to my mind as the math genius’s from MIT did card counting at certain Blackjack tables and made millions. The bad news is that the casino has a black list and all of them are on it. The casino has the right not to serve you based on whatever reason they want.

My friend, Walter Cherpinsky, has a great website where he dedicates a lot of his time to a niche area. He bets the bulk of his money on Football games. This guy has a track record of 8 years of winning seasons. He has been able to make money based on his knowledge of trends, football analysis, and general betting knowledge. Visit his website at www.walterfootball.com and check out his stuff if you’re interested

Poker: Let me categorize poker players into certain animals. There is the owl. The owl is extremely conservative and he is watching his prey constantly. When he senses a weakness he will take advantage. If he spots a shark, he will back off. Donkey’s, the next character to be described, can sometimes scare the owl at first, but the owl will eventually steal the donkey’s fuel. Unfortunately, the Owl’s way too conservative play won’t win him in heads up against the “Shark”. The Shark loves donkeys and can spot them in a second. The saying goes “If you can’t spot the donkey when you sit down at the poker table, you’re the donkey!” (donkey instead of fish). The Donkey sometime gets lucky and draws out a card on someone, which only temporarily boosts his ego as he brags to everyone. But in the long run, the Donkey will lose all of his fuel. My point is that the “Shark” will always win in the long run. He makes his plays based on the kind of player he is betting against and is putting his money to pressure you.  

As for an extreme case for the loser:

My father told me that he lost approximately $250,000 gambling in his life time and I believe him and for the sake of this argument, let’s just say he was telling the truth. (For those who did not know my father, if there was one thing you could surely never believe him on, it was his gambling winnings/losses. Not that he would hide his problem, but he had a way of messing with your mind so that you didn’t know up from down and left from right).

Most children have fathers who take them to Disney Land, Kings Island/Six Flags, cruises (etc etc) but my father took me on approximately 15 Vegas trips between the ages of (6-16). How in the world could a teenager have fun in Vegas without alcohol or being able to gamble you say? Well… on every one of these trips, we ate at the finest steak restaurants and my father enjoyed only the finest bottles of wine ($200 per bottle and up). When he would take us there, we ate at 5 star restaurants like they were buffets. We would order salads, appetizers, the biggest and most expensive steaks and a dessert. The total bill would be around 400-500 dollars on an average night. His tips were never free, but all food/alcohol/beverages were free. Just as a side note, Vegas will NOT “comp”/pay your tips to its waitresses for any high rollers; No matter what action you give them.

In addition to all the free food, we stayed in luxurious high-roller suites with Jacuzzis and beautiful views of the entire Las Vegas strip. The room along with spa trips, and tickets to the hottest and best shows Vegas had to offer were free. I saw David Copperfield, Jay Leno’s Standup, Siegfriend & Roy just to name a few. The problem was that I was not old enough to see the good shows (I missed out on all the VIP nudie shows & people like my favorite comedian George Carlin). Not only did he get tickets to the best show for free, but he also received amazing seats as a bonus. Yes, as I alluded to earlier he lost $250,000 dollars gambling over the course of 35 years of Las Vegas trips. But once you amortize that cost over all those years with all the free meals/entertainment that he received from the casinos, if he didn’t come out ahead, he sure the hell was close to it! And even if he wasn’t ahead, factor in the opportunity cost he would have paid taking us to Disneyland and spending all that money on bullshit. Nothing is free there except the toilets. This is so illogical, its logical.

Side note: Many gamblers have not been as fortunate as this and have lost every single dime of their money and everything else they could get their hands on while not receiving these benefits. I am just sharing my story. I am not promoting/demoting any gambling. Do whatever the hell you like. I am merely pointing out the irony.

The next section is about craps and I am anticipating that most of you will tune out hear. Please STOP reading if you are not interested in this ( ha ha as I ramble and ramble) and I think I have made my point so far. The 

Craps sections just takes my argument one level further

Craps: For those gamblers who play Craps, I’d wager a guess that nearly 90-99% of them are superstitious as hell. After the come-out roll (which is the first roll of the dice when its NOT a 2,3,7,11,or 12) if the shooter throws a 2, 3, or 12, (especially two times in a row) there is a mighty good chance a 7 is coming. Yes, I know the odds for the 7 still have not changed (they are 6:1 every roll NO matter what; it’s the most commonly rolled number). But, for those who have played the game, they understand that when a shooter gets cold and starts rolling ugly numbers (2,3,12) and there are long pauses between each roll, the mojo  has exited the building and the “machomovitz” has been placed and is ready in action. The 7 is coming out on the next roll which means that the casino takes all bets placed on the table. For the non-jewish readers, machomovitz is a Yiddish phrase for “putting the jinx on/a.k.a. the devil”.  Craps superstitions are so illogical, its logical.

Finally, here are some random Craps superstitions that are so illogical its logical

-Betting on the ‘Yo ‘Yo ‘Yo (11) or Boxcars (12) after a 2 or a 3. The casino pays 15:1 on 11 and 30:1 on 12 when the true odds are 18:1 and 36:1 respectively. But for some reason the 11 & 12 loves to come after a 2 or 3. No reason. It’s  just the way it goes

 -Betting maximum odds below the line when the point is 6 or 8. These are the 2^nd highest rolled numbers behind the 7, and the casinos pay true odds below the line. This is the only bet in the world where a gambler gets true odds. The only reason the house has any advantage is because your pass line bet (the only way you can make a below the line bet) only pays even money on any number. Factor in that rolling a 7 before hitting that 6 or 8 also loses. My point is that with a person taking full odds at (10X up to 100X odds) this is the best bet they can make and it can be profitable. With all this being said, you can’t just stand at the Craps table for 8 hours straight. You have to ride the waves with the ebbs and flows and have the ability to walk away. This is where most/many/everyone has the problem with. Where do you draw that line at? Walking that line is like walking on a broken sheet of ice covering a lake. Being as delicate and fragile as possible is the only long term strategy.

I would love to hear comments!